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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd